Very severe cyclone Nivar to cross coast around Puducherry during mid-night of 25th and early hours of 26th November

The severe cyclonic storm NIVAR over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 07 kmph during past six hours and lay centred over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 10.4°N and longitude 82.0°E, about 290 km east-southeast of Cuddalore, about 300 km east southeast of Puducherry and 350 km south southeast of Chennai. It is very likely to intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. It is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during mid-night of 25th and early hours of 26th November 2020 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph.

Forecast track and intensity are given below:

Warnings:

(i) Rainfall

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity very likely over coastal and north interior Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during 25 th and 26th November and southeast Telangana during 26th November, 2020. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall activity also very likely over coastal & north interior Tamilnadu & Puducherry (Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Cuddalore, Chennai, Kanchipuram, Chengalpattu, Myladuthirai, Ariyalur, Perambalur, Kallakurchi, Villupuram, Tiruvannamalai, Puducherry and Karaikal districts) during 25 th; over Nellore and Chittoor districts of Andhra Pradesh on 25th and over Rayalaseema & southeast Telangana on 26th November, 2020.

(ii) Wind warning

 Gale wind speed reaching 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph is prevailing over Southwest Bay of Bengal. It would further increase becoming 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph during afternoon of 25th to early hours of 26th November.  Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph is prevailing along & off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coast and over Gulf of Mannar. It will gradually increase and become gale wind speed reaching 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph along & off coastal districts of north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry (Nagapattinam, Karaikal, Myladuthurai, Cuddalore, Puducherry, Villupuram & Chengalpattu) and 80-90 gusting to 100 kmph very likely over Tiruvarur, Kanchipuram, Chennai, Tiruvallur districts during afternoon of 25th to early hrs of 26th November, 2020.  Gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph very likely over adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal and along & off South Andhra Pradesh (Nellore & Chittoor districts), Gulf of Mannar and along and off south coastal districts of Tamil Nadu during afternoon of 25th to early hrs of 26th November, 2020.

(iii) Sea condition

 Sea condition is very high over Southwest Bay of Bengal and very rough to high along & off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south Andhra Pradesh coasts and over Gulf of Mannar. It would gradually become phenomenal over Southwest Bay of Bengal and along & off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry coasts during afternoon of 25th to early hrs of 26th November, 2020. (iv) Strom Surge Warning

 Tidal wave of about 1-1.5m height above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate the low lying areas of north coastal districts of Tamilnadu & Puducherry near the place of landfall. (v) (a) Damage expected over Nagapattinam, Myladuthurai, Cuddalore, , Villupuram & Chengalpattu districts of Tamilnadu and Karaikal & Puducherry:

 Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.

 Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.

 Major damage to Kutcha and and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes. Disruption of railways, overhead powerlines and signalling systems.

 Widespread damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards, falling of green coconuts and tearing of palm fronds. Blowing down of bushy trees like mango.

 Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.

 Visibility severely affected. (b) Damage expected over Tiruvarur, Kanchipuram, Chennai, Tiruvallaur districts of Tamilnadu and adjoining Andhra Pradesh:

 Damage to thatched houses/ huts with possibility of roof tops being blown off and unattached metal sheets may fly.  Damage to power and communication lines.  Damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.

 Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of trees. Severe damage to banana and papaya trees, horticulture and crops & orchards. Large dead limbs blown from trees.  Major damage to coastal crops. Damage to embankments/ salt pans. (vi) Fishermen Warning & Action Suggested:

 Total suspension of fishing operations.

 Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places.

 People in affected areas to remain in safe places and indoors.

 Judicious regulation of rail, road and air traffic.

 Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe